Climate change has been blamed for killer hurricanes, sea level rise, and drought, but a new report suggests the effects of climate change might hit the world's coffee supply. Up to 70 percent of the world's coffee supply could be threatened over the next 66 years, according to a new study by researchers at England's Royal Botanic Gardens.
Nearly 100 percent of the world's Arabica coffee growing regions could become unsuitable for the plant by 2080, according to the study. Beans from Arabica coffee plants account for about 70 percent of the world's coffee, but the plant also has to be grown under strict weather conditions: they grow well at temperatures between 64 and 70 degrees Celsius, and are highly influenced by frost or temperatures higher than 73 degrees Celsius.
With temperatures estimated to increase by between 1. 8 and 4 degrees Celsius by the end of the century, the fragile plant might become increasingly expensive and difficult to grow, especially in places such as Ethiopia and Kenya. In that worst case, nearly all of the world's native Arabica coffee would die out. Under more conservative(保守的)estimates, about 65 percent of the regions used to grow the coffee would become unsuitable for it. The evidence from coffee farmers and coffee growing regions around the world is that they are already suffering from the influences of increased warming.
Some farmers would likely be able to move their operations to other areas or would be able to overcome climate change with artificial cooling techniques, but wild Arabica is generally considered to be much more suitable for making high-quality coffee.
If Arabica becomes impossible to raise in its native areas, it could do serious damage to the economies of the mainly third-world countries in which it grows. Coffee is the world's most popular drink and is the second most-traded product in the world, behind oil.